Live map probability of ≥2 LI flashes within 20 km
0%100%
Velika Gorica
forecast history · selected lead bin · dots = realized outcome
| lead | Brier | POD | FAR | CSI | n |
|---|
Live satellite data
domain flash counts per 5 min · last 6 h
Ensemble independent experts, combined per lead bin
| expert | inputs | state | weight |
|---|
weights ∝ 1/val-Brier² per lead bin, renormalized over the experts available each tick — a stale source drops its expert and costs accuracy, never availability
Training
–
train loss
val Brier (mean)
Forecast quality vs baselines, last 7 days
| lead | base rate | model | persist | advect | climo | BSS | PR-AUC | CSI |
|---|
reliability · selected bin (diagonal = perfect)